Nigeria’s cocoa exports surge amid global market dynamics

NIGERIA – Nigeria’s cocoa exports witnessed an extraordinary 606 percent surge in the fourth quarter of 2024, reaching N1.2 trillion (US$0.78 billion) from N171 billion (US$0.11 billion) in the corresponding period of 2023. 

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), this sharp increase can be attributed to favorable market conditions, a strong global price rally, and adverse weather conditions in the two largest cocoa-producing nations—Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. 

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, Nigeria’s cocoa exports rose by 92 percent from N624.71 billion (US$0.41 billion) in Q3 of 2024, as Nigerian farmers and exporters capitalized on soaring prices.

Market drivers and expanding cocoa cultivation

Global cocoa prices hit a record US$12,000 per tonne in December 2024, prompting significant investor interest. As a result, Nigerian farmers have been reviving old cocoa trees and planting new ones to capitalize on the booming cash crop value chain.

Nigeria, the world’s fourth-largest cocoa producer, generated 284,232 tonnes of cocoa beans in 2023, according to data from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). 

The country’s superior-quality cocoa beans accounted for N477.95 billion (US$0.31 billion) in exports to the Netherlands, while Malaysia imported N108.09 billion (US$70 million) worth. 

Standard-quality cocoa beans valued at N110.84 billion (US$72 million) were also exported to the Netherlands, with Belgium receiving N48.96 billion (US$32 million).

Climate change threatens cocoa sustainability

Despite the economic boom, a study by the Independent Research Centre, Climate Central, has raised concerns about the long-term sustainability of cocoa production in West Africa. 

Rising temperatures and erratic weather patterns have led to prolonged extreme heat events, affecting approximately 70 percent of cocoa-growing regions in Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, and Cameroon.

In 2024, these regions experienced six-week heat waves, with daily temperatures exceeding the optimal threshold of 30°C to 32°C. This prolonged heat has resulted in severe water stress, disrupted cocoa tree growth cycles, and increased vulnerability to diseases, all of which threaten production stability.

While Nigeria has faced a relatively lower increase in extreme heat compared to its neighbors, studies suggest that even minor climatic shifts can significantly impact cocoa farming. If unchecked, these challenges could undermine the sector’s long-term viability and economic contributions.

Sustainability efforts and climate mitigation

In response to these concerns, the World Cocoa Foundation (WCF) has launched the first-ever Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Accounting Standard for Cocoa. 

Developed in collaboration with environmental consultancy Quantis and industry stakeholders, the initiative offers a standardized framework for measuring and reducing emissions in the cocoa sector.

The new standard is designed to help cocoa companies meet Scope 3 emissions reporting obligations while addressing key environmental challenges, including deforestation and land degradation. 

By promoting sustainable agricultural practices, the initiative aims to ensure the resilience and longevity of the cocoa industry in Nigeria and across West Africa.